Scientists Map H7N9's Infection Risks

Avian influenza (H7N9) risk based on the northwards migratory patterns of birds using environmental and meteorological data has been mapped by scientists.

The map comprises of bird migration patterns, and adding in estimations of poultry production and consumption, which are used to deduce future risk and to advice on ways to prevent infection.

Avian Influenza / Bird Flu-Causes-Symptoms-Treatment- FAQs
Bird flu (avian influenza/avian flu) is a disease caused by an influenza virus (H5N1) that primarily affects birds but can infect humans also.

Till now there have been 127 confirmed cases of H7N9 in mainland China with 27 deaths and lack of data about the virus and its mode of transmission has led to public concerns that it could be a pandemic that is waiting to happen.

To quantify the risk of this happening, scientists from the Hong Kong Baptist University and Chinese University of Hong Kong generated a map of H7N9 risk in eastern China.

The distribution of potentially infected poultry was also included in the model.

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Influenza (or rather, the flu) is a cold weather infectious condition that affects the young and old alike. Though most reported cases are mild, the flu can sometimes cause severe and life-threatening complications in both children and adults, thanks to wrong medications and improper vaccinations. Learn more about the disease from our Flu Quiz and guard yourself and your family from a possible infection.

The majority of early cases of H7N9 were found in Shanghai, which is not a big poultry exporter so the model shows limited transmission via this route.

In contrast, Jiangsu distributes poultry to Shanghai, Zhejiang, and beyond.

Source of H7N9 Avian Influenza Identified
Researchers have ascribed H7N9 source to genetic reassortment of wild birds from east Asia and chickens from east China.

Prof Jiming Liu who led the study said that by basing the model on wild bird migration and distribution of potentially infected poultry they were able to produce a time line of the estimated risk of human infection with H7N9.

He said that the preliminary results of the study made a prediction of bird flu risk that could explain the pattern of the most recent cases.

Experts Believe That Migratory Birds Might Have Carried Avian Influenza into China
An expert with the country's agricultural ministry has said that migratory birds may have carried the H7N9 avian influenza virus into China.

He asserted that by extending the model they will be able to predict future infection risks across central and western China, which will aid in surveillance and control of H7N9 infections.

He added that since the effect of poultry-to-poultry infection is not really understood it may become necessary to regulate the activity of poultry markets.

A map of avian influenza (H7N9) risk has been published in Biomed Central's open access journal Infectious Diseases of Poverty.

Source-ANI