HIV Market Explosion: $32 Billion Surge Across 7 Major Markets by 2033

A new report has projected significant growth in the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) market across the seven major markets (7MM), forecasting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.9%, from $26.5 billion in 2023 to $32.1 billion by 2033. This upward trajectory is largely attributed to the increasing adoption of long-acting injectable therapies and the expected launch of novel single tablet regimens (STRs) (1^✔ ✔Trusted Source
HIV market to surpass $32 billion across 7MM in 2033, forecasts GlobalData

Go to source). According to GlobalData's report, "Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV): Seven-Market Drug Forecast," the anticipated expansion of the market will be underpinned by a shift in treatment preferences, particularly the movement away from traditional 3-drug STRs towards more innovative 2-drug STRs. These new treatments are designed to offer reduced toxicities and side effects, presenting an improved option for patients.

Anaelle Tannen, Infectious Disease Analyst at GlobalData, explained, "The pipeline analysis indicates a transition from 3-drug STRs to 2-drug STRs, which are expected to have lower levels of toxicity, enhancing the overall patient experience."

New Drug Developments and Treatments The report highlights that six HIV products currently in Phase III development are expected to launch by 2033. Notably, four of these will be two-drug STRs, including:

• Gilead Sciences’ once-daily combination of bictegravir and lenacapavir
• Merck’s once-daily doravirine and islatravir
• Gilead’s once-weekly islatravir and lenacapavir
• A once-weekly regimen of GS-1720 and GS-4182, developed jointly by Gilead and Merck

Tannen noted, “Currently, all STRs require daily administration, and there is a pressing need for more convenient alternatives. The introduction of therapies like islatravir+lenacapavir and GS-1720+GS-4182 could address this gap in convenience for patients.”

The Growing Role of Long-Acting Injectable Therapies

In addition to the new oral therapies, long-acting injectable treatments are expected to capture a significant share of the HIV market. These therapies, due to their less frequent dosing requirements, offer a more convenient option for patients.

One of the most promising long-acting treatments is Gilead’s lenacapavir, which is initially expected to be administered subcutaneously on a biannual basis for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). There are also ongoing clinical trials exploring the possibility of administering lenacapavir intramuscularly once a year. Preliminary data from Phase I trials has shown that a once-yearly intramuscular dose could be an effective means of prevention.

Tannen emphasized, “Subcutaneous lenacapavir has demonstrated 100% efficacy in preventing new HIV infections, establishing it as a key tool for PrEP in the HIV prevention landscape.”

While lenacapavir’s efficacy in preventing HIV infections is a significant milestone, its price point remains a concern. The subcutaneous formulation of lenacapavir is anticipated to be more expensive than the daily oral PrEP treatments currently available. Key opinion leaders (KOLs) interviewed by GlobalData expressed concerns that the high cost of long-acting injectable therapies could pose a barrier to access, especially in low- and middle-income regions.

Despite these challenges, the ongoing development and anticipated launch of these innovative HIV treatments signal a promising future for the global fight against HIV. As these therapies continue to evolve, they bring hope for better management and prevention of HIV, offering a more convenient and effective approach for patients worldwide.

With these innovations in the pipeline, the HIV market is set for an exciting transformation over the next decade. As long-acting injectables and new STRs take center stage, they will likely redefine the treatment landscape and further empower healthcare providers in their efforts to manage HIV more effectively.

This ongoing evolution in the HIV treatment market is a testament to the growing commitment of pharmaceutical companies to combat the disease, improve patient outcomes, and expand access to life-saving therapies worldwide.

Reference:

1. HIV market to surpass $32 billion across 7MM in 2033, forecasts GlobalData - (https://www.globaldata.com/media/pharma/hiv-market-to-surpass-32-billion-across-7mm-in-2033-forecasts-globaldata/)

Source-Medindia