The global eradication of COVID-19 is predicted as feasible using a comparative score of technical, sociopolitical, and economic factors fall among COVID-19, polio and smallpox.
The global eradication of COVID-19 is probably feasible, and more so than it is for polio and smallpox, suggests a comparative score of technical, sociopolitical, and economic factors for all three infections, published in the online journal BMJ Global Health. Public health experts are interested in achieving global eradication possible because of the huge financial and social havoc brought by the coronavirus pandemic.
‘Main challenges in COVID-19 eradication are securing high vaccine uptake and response to emergence of variants.’
But the main challenges lie in securing sufficiently high vaccine coverage and being able to respond quickly enough to variants that may evade immunity.To estimate the feasibility of COVID-19 eradication which is defined as ‘the permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidences of infection caused by a specific agent as a result of deliberate efforts’, researchers compared it with two other viral scourges for which vaccines were/are available---smallpox and polio--using an array of technical, sociopolitical, and economic factors that are likely to help achieve this goal.
They used a three-point scoring system for each of 17 variables. These included: factors such as the availability of a safe and effective vaccine; lifelong immunity; impact of public health measures; effective government management of infection control messaging; political and public concern about the economic and social impacts of the infection; and public acceptance of infection control measures.
The average (total) scores in the analysis added up to 2.7 (43/48) for smallpox, 1.6 (28/51) for COVID-19, and 1.5 (26/51) for polio.
“While our analysis is a preliminary effort, with various subjective components, it does seem to put COVID-19 eradicability into the realms of being possible, especially in terms of technical feasibility,” they write.
Advertisement
Other challenges will be the high upfront costs (for vaccination and upgrading health systems), and achieving the necessary international cooperation in the face of ‘vaccine nationalism’ and government-mediated ‘antiscience aggression’.
Advertisement
They also suggest that the upgrading of health systems to get rid of the virus can also help in controlling other infections and even eradicate measles.
Elimination of COVID-19 has been achieved and sustained for long periods in several jurisdictions in the Asia-Pacific region, providing proof-of-concept that global eradication is technically possible.
Though their study is a preliminary one, more extensive in-depth work is required. The World Health Organization, or a coalition of national-level agencies working collaboratively, needs to formally review the feasibility and desirability of attempting COVID-19 eradication.
Source-Medindia