Number of daily deaths in Italian hospitals is increasing at the maximum rate, and more numbers of deaths in hospital are likely to continue until mid-April and may go on to early June, says a new report on Covid-19 basing on data up to March 30 from Italy, prepared by an Italian expert for the European Society of Anaesthesiology (ESA). The data suggest that the increase in numbers of patients in intensive care (ICU) in both the Lombardy region and Italy as a whole are likely to have peaked, but that numbers of deaths in hospital will continue to increase at the maximum rate for several days to come.
‘There are significant number of patients in ICUs in Italy. The numbers of deaths in hospital will continue to accelerate at the maximum rate for several days to come.’
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March 31, 2020, is classed as day 39 of the pandemic in Italy, with day 1 classed as February 22. For deaths, it is important to note that patients dying now and during the days to come were mostly infected around two weeks ago.Read More..
Models identify the maximum daily increase of deaths in hospital as being likely to occur during days 36-40 (that is March 28- April 1) in Lombardy and days 36-41 (March 28-April 2) in Italy.
Professor Manca has explored two different modelling techniques called logistic and Gompertz modelling to prepare his report. According to the more optimistic logistic model, 98% of total expected deaths in hospital would have occurred in both Lombardy and Italy by April 15.
Conversely, the more pessimistic Gompertz model predicts 98% of deaths to occur by June 3 in Lombardy and by June 4 in Italy.
For the number of patients in ICU, the data show the day of maximum increase was reached at Day 22 (15 March) in Lombardy and Day 25 (18 March) in Italy. "The difference between Lombardy and Italy is due to the social-distancing measures adopted first in Lombardy and then all over the country. Every day counted," explains Professor Manca.
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It is important to remember, says Prof Manca, that space in ICU becomes available as patients recover and are discharged, or sadly die from Covid-19. Also, more ICU capacity is being created in Italy as the pandemic progresses.
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The new report contains several additional observations from the data:
Not all the patients that require intubation treatment can receive it when required. Sometimes, that treatment must be postponed because of ICU beds saturation and this may cause deterioration in the patient’s pulmonary status and prevent the patient’s weaning and extend their time in ICU CPAP (continuous positive airway pressure) breathing devices may delay respiratory failure, and help medical staff (also non-ICU experts) to avoid ICU admission when intubation is not feasible.
Source-Eurekalert