The oceanic region adjoining the Indian subcontinent is likely to warm at its surface by about 1.5-2.0 degree Centigrade by the middle of this century and by about 2.3-3.5 degree Centigrade by the end of the century.
This indication is derived from modern simulation studies. In a discussion on this issue in the Indian parliament, Minister of State in the Ministry of Environment and Forests, Shri Namo Narain Meena said that the past observations on the mean sea level along the Indian coast show a long-term rising trend of about 1.0 mm/year. The recent data suggests a rising trend of 2.5 mm/year in the sea-level along Indian coastline.
The corresponding thermal expansion, related sea-level rise is expected to be between 15 cm and 38 cm by the middle of this century and between 46 cm and 59 cm by the end of the century.
According to a study conducted by the Ministry of Environment & Forests on the impacts of climate change on various sectors including coastal zones, in the event of one meter sea-level rise, 5764 Km2 of land in coastal areas of India is projected to lose, displacing approximately 7.1 million people along with 4200 Kms of roads by the end of the 21st century.
Further the coastal areas are also vulnerable to projected increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events like storm surges and cyclones. In the eastern coast, the vulnerable districts include Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapara in Orissa and Nellore in Andhra Pradesh and Nagapattinam in Tamil Nadu.