Researchers at the University of Melbourne are hoping that Spanish flu records from the 1918 epidemic may hold the key to prevent future deadly pandemic outbreaks. The researchers are analysing UK data from the three waves of the pandemic in 1918 and 1919.
They hope that modern high-speed computing and mathematical modeling techniques will help them solve some of the questions about the pandemic which have puzzled scientists for close to a century.
Professorial Fellow John Mathews and colleagues are analysing the records of 24,000 people collected from 12 locations in the UK during the Spanish flu outbreak including Cambridge University, public boarding schools and elementary schools.
He said that gaining a better understanding of how and why the virus spread will help health authorities make decisions about how to tackle future pandemics.
"In the 1918/19 pandemic, mortality was greatest among previously healthy young adults, when normally you would expect that elderly people would be the most likely to die. We don't really understand why children and older adults were at lesser risk," Mathews said.
"One explanation may be that children were protected by innate immunity while older people may have been exposed to a similar virus in the decades before 1890 which gave them partial but long-lasting protection.
Another striking feature is that the pandemic appeared in three waves, in the summer and autumn of 1918 and then the following winter.
"The attack rates in the big cities weren't as high and this is probably because many people had been exposed to ordinary flu viruses, giving short-lived immunity,'' he said.
"In the English boarding schools, where there was social demarcation, children were probably less exposed to seasonal influenza viruses in earlier years; without that protection, pandemic attack rates were much higher than in ordinary government elementary schools.
"If we can provide a detailed time course of epidemics and the attack rates at different times, that information can be extremely useful in determining how a future pandemic might progress,'' said Mathews.