In US men, the contribution of H. pylori and smoking trends to the decline in gastric cancer.
Trends in Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) and smoking explain a significant proportion of the decline of intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence in US men between 1978 and 2008, and are estimated to continue to contribute to further declines between 2008 and 2040.
These are the conclusions of a study by Jennifer M. Yeh of the Center for Health Decision Science at the Harvard School of Public Health in Boston and colleagues, published in this week's PLOS Medicine, that suggest H. pylori and smoking trends together accounted for almost half of the observed decline in intestinal-type NCGA between 1978 and 2008. Understanding the combined effects of underlying risk factor trends on health outcomes for intestinal-type NCGA at the population level can help to predict future cancer trends and burden in the US.
The authors say: "In conclusion, trends in modifiable risk factors explain a significant proportion of the decline of intestinal-type NCGA incidence in the US, and will contribute to future decline."
They add: "Although past tobacco control efforts have hastened the decline, the full benefits will take several decades to be realized, and further discouragement of smoking and reduction of H. pylori infection should be priorities for GC control efforts."