A new study by scientists has predicted the effect of global warming on spring flowers by the year 2080.
Data, taken from records dating back to the late nineteenth century, has been used to demonstrate the impact of global warming and to predict the effect further warming will have on plant life by 2080.
AdvertisementThe study, by Dr Malcolm Clark and Prof Roy Thompson, is based on the facts that plants control the timing of flowering by adapting to the local weather and climate and that throughout the past century, global warming, driven by ever rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, has resulted in local climate changes which are likely to steadily increase.
"Already there is a great deal of observational evidence of regional changes in climate associated with global warming," said Clark.
"We have not only seen an earlier break up of ice on rivers and melting glaciers, but also the early emergence of insects, egg laying by birds and the flowering of plants. This new model allows us to refine predictions of the future impact of warming on plant and animal life across much of the world," he added.
Clark and Thompson worked from a wealth of old records from the Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh, which started in 1850.
They also analyzed records of Edinburgh's climate from records dating back to 1775. With this information they investigated the responses of 79 species of plant to air temperatures.
Using this data, Thompson and Clark establish the relationship between air temperature and first flowering date and have used their new statistical model to predict likely changes in spring flowering in Scotland based on three potential global warming scenarios.
For every 1 degree Celsius that the climate warms, they predict that spring flowering will begin approximately 11 days earlier.
For an increasingly oceanic climate (greater winter than summer warming), their model predicts shifts in the botanical season ranging between 16 days at the start of spring and 12 days at the end of spring.
For an increasingly continental climate, predictions range between 7 days at the start of spring and 11 days at the end of spring.
Clark and Thompson checked the results of their statistical model with other data sets from across the world, indicating that their results are not limited to one country.
"Although the study is based on plant life in Scotland, our phenological models apply across regions spanning hundreds of thousands of square kilometers," said Clark.
Using their results, Thompson and Clark have been able to construct a global map demonstrating 'desynchronisation' of plant and animal life in the year 2080.