Most of the global population will be exposed to degraded air quality over the coming decades. The countries that are most likely to be affected by air pollution are China, North India and the Middle East, according to a study.
In large cities, summer air is highly polluted with automobile and industrial emissions what makes breathing difficult and unhealthy.
According to the latest calculations of Max Planck scientist Andrea Pozzer this scenario could become true for most of world population in 2050 if no counteractive measures are taken.
This is the result of a simulation of the atmosphere done by scientists at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics and the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission.
The chemical atmospheric model EMAC used by the researchers for their current study is the first to include all five major air pollutants known to negatively impact human health: nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, ozone, carbon monoxide and particulate matter smaller than 2.5 micrometres which are regarded as particularly harmful.
Air pollution is one of the major current health risks of humanity. At present, urban outdoor air pollution causes 1.3 million estimated deaths per year worldwide, according to the World Health Organisation. That number will increase in coming years.
Therefore Andrea Pozzer and his colleagues studied the impact of man-made emissions on air quality in different regions of the earth. They show, what could happen if no further action is taken to reduce pollutants.
"Our study shows that further legislation to control and reduce man-made emissions is needed, in particular for eastern China and northern India, to avoid hot-spots of elevated air pollution," said Andrea Pozzer of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz.
According to the results of this study eastern China and northern India are the places that are struggling with the highest pollution levels.
East Asia will be exposed to high levels of pollutants, such as nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Northern India and the Arabian Gulf region, on the other hand, will suffer a marked increase in ozone levels.
This is primarily due to population density and the expected increase in industrial production and transport in these areas. Air pollution in Europe and North America would also increase, but due to the effect of mitigation policies - that have been in place for over two decades now - to a much lesser extent than in Asia.
The findings have been published in the current issue of 'Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics', a journal of the European Geosciences Union.