About Careers Internship MedBlog Contact us
Medindia LOGIN REGISTER
Advertisement

Earth's History may Predict Future Global Temperatures

by Bidita Debnath on December 22, 2015 at 12:11 AM
Font : A-A+

 Earth's History may Predict Future Global Temperatures

A NASA study has found that climate change over the last 150 years may estimate future global temperatures.

According to a new NASA study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, to quantify climate change, researchers need to know the Transient Climate Response (TCR) and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of Earth.

Advertisement


TCR is characteristic of short-term predictions, up to a century out, while ECS looks centuries further into the future, when the entire climate system has reached equilibrium and temperatures have stabilised.

As part of that calculation that depended on the measurements of important climate drivers, such as carbon dioxide, the researchers have relied on simplifying assumptions when accounting for the temperature impacts of climate drivers other than carbon dioxide, such as tiny particles in the atmosphere known as aerosols.
Advertisement

But the assumptions made to account for these drivers are too simplistic and result in incorrect estimates of TCR and ECS, said Gavin Schmidt, a climate scientist and director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York, who is also a co-author of the study.

"The problem with that approach is that it falls way short of capturing the individual regional impacts of each of those variables," he said, adding that only within the last 10 years has there been enough available data on aerosols to abandon the simple assumption and instead attempt detailed calculations.

Earlier NASA calculated the temperature impact of each of variables like greenhouse gases, natural and manmade aerosols, ozone concentrations, and land use changes based on historical observations from 1850 to 2005 using a massive ensemble of computer simulations.

However, earlier studies did not account for what amounts to a net cooling effect for parts of the northern hemisphere and the predictions for TCR and ECS were lower than they should have been.

"If you've got a systematic underestimate of what the greenhouse gas-driven change would be, then you're systematically underestimating what's going to happen in the future when greenhouse gases are by far the dominant climate driver," Schmidt said.

Source: IANS
Advertisement

Advertisement
News A-Z
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
What's New on Medindia
Top 10 Foods for Decreasing DHT Production and Preventing Hair Fall
Alarming Cesarean Section Trends in India - Convenience or Compulsion of Corporate Healthcare
Quiz on Low-Calorie Diet for Diabetes
View all
News Archive
Date
Category
Advertisement
News Category

Medindia Newsletters Subscribe to our Free Newsletters!
Terms & Conditions and Privacy Policy.

Most Popular on Medindia

Nutam (400mg) (Piracetam) Iron Intake Calculator Diaphragmatic Hernia Indian Medical Journals Find a Hospital Drug Interaction Checker Noscaphene (Noscapine) Blood Donation - Recipients Vent Forte (Theophylline) Drug - Food Interactions
This site uses cookies to deliver our services. By using our site, you acknowledge that you have read and understand our Cookie Policy, Privacy Policy, and our Terms of Use
×

Earth's History may Predict Future Global Temperatures Personalised Printable Document (PDF)

Please complete this form and we'll send you a personalised information that is requested

You may use this for your own reference or forward it to your friends.

Please use the information prudently. If you are not a medical doctor please remember to consult your healthcare provider as this information is not a substitute for professional advice.

Name *

Email Address *

Country *

Areas of Interests