India's achievements in various fields, particularly in terms of economic growth, could take a severe beating if HIV/AIDS continues its unchecked march in the country, a UN report said here today.
The study based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of the likely impact of the epidemic over a 14-year period between 2002-03 and 2015-16 showed that with the rapid spread of HIV/AIDS, the country's economic growth over the next 10-15 years would be noticeably less than its potential.
"Economic growth could decline by 0.86 percentage points over the period and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.55 percentage points," said the study conducted by National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) and supported by the National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
According to the projections made using the CGE model, the country's GDP, at 2002-03 prices, would decline in 2015-16 by Rs 7610.61, the report said.
It said that the increase in health spending by both, households and government, would lead to a fall in their savings, which then crowds out investment and causes growth to slow down.
The epidemic could also pull down incomes of HIV households by 9.24 per cent, which in turn could have an adverse impact on the economy, in terms of reduced savings and investments, the report said.