Researchers have predicted that the number of people on Earth will stabilize around the middle of the century. The results, obtained with a model used by a research team from the Autonomous University of Madrid, coincide with the UN's downward forecasts.
According to United Nations' estimates, the world population in 2100 will be within a range between 15.8 billion people according to the highest estimates, high fertility variant- and 6.2 billion according to the lowest, low fertility variant, a figure that stands below the current 7 billion.
A mathematical model developed by a team from the Autonomous University of Madrid (UAM) and the CEU-San Pablo University, both from Spain, seems to confirm the lower estimate, in addition to a standstill and even a slight drop in the number of people on Earth by the mid-21st century.
The population prospects between 1950 and 2100 provided by the UN were used to conduct the study, published in the journal 'Simulation'.
Mathematical equations that are used in scientific fields, such as condensed matter physics, were then applied to this data.
The model's S-shaped sigmoid curve reflects this situation with an inflection point in the mid-1980s when the speed at which the population is growing starts to slow down until it stabilises around 2050.
"Overpopulation was a spectre in the 1960s and 70s but historically the UN's low fertility variant forecasts have been fulfilled," Felix F. Munoz, UAM researcher and co-author of the project. highlighted.