New Risk Calculator Can Foretell All Outcomes for Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Patients

by Jeffil Obadiah on Aug 23 2019 4:01 PM

New Risk Calculator Can Foretell All Outcomes for Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Patients
New surgical risk/benefit calculator that will provide surgeons who specialize in bariatrics and metabolism as well as their patients with accurate and reliable outcomes of the surgery.//
“This calculator is extremely meaningful in that it uses millions of cases within the unique clinical registry data from the MBSAQIP to address three important areas—first it predicts rates of untoward events; second, it predicts weight loss; and third, and possibly most important, it predicts rates of disease resolution, including such things as diabetes, hypertension, sleep apnea, and others. This information is crucial for both patients and providers,” said Clifford Y. Ko, MD, MS, MSHS, FACS, Director of the American College of Surgeons (ACS) Division of Research and Optimal Patient Care.

The Bariatric Surgical Risk/Benefit Calculator was built using data collected from more than 775,000 operations from 925 centers participating in MBSAQIP from January 1, 2013, through June 30, 2018. For 30-day outcomes, the calculator uses 20 patient predictors, such as age, American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification, and preoperative body mass index (BMI) to predict the likelihood that patients will experience any of nine different outcomes within the first 30 days after an operation. Examples of these outcomes include surgical site infections, unplanned reoperations, and death. The calculator can predict the patient’s BMI, weight, and total weight change percentage trajectories up to one year after an operative procedure. To assist with patients’ understanding of the predictions, the calculator provides a summary report designed for patients to share the information with their families and other multidisciplinary team members involved in their care.

“The MBSAQIP Calculator is a unique tool to aid patients and surgeons alike. This tool will allow for a patient-centered approach to risk assessment, procedure selection, and has the significant additional advantage of determining and maintaining progress after surgery with weight loss and comorbidity improvement milestones for the critical first postoperative year. With over 700,000 cases and 900 hospitals participating over five years, this valuable instrument has the potential to deliver precision care to over 250,000 patients annually,” said John Magaña Morton, MD, MPH, MHA, FACS, FASMBS, ABOM, vice-chair, quality, and division chief, bariatric and minimally invasive surgery, Yale University School of Medicine, and Chair of the ACS Committee for Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery (CMBS).

The calculator was introduced at the 2019 ACS Quality and Safety Conference in Washington, DC, and will be available to clinicians in the coming week. The calculator will be located both on the ACS website for all metabolic and bariatric surgery centers to use as well as the data registry portal for MBSAQIP-accredited centers.