- Between 2015 and 2030, the median mortality rates are projected to increase for lung cancer, whereas declines are expected for breast cancer, in a study done in 52 countries
- Deaths due to lung and breast cancer are projected to be higher in high-income countries than in middle-income countries
- Primary prevention methods should be put in place to decrease lung cancer mortality
More women will die due to lung cancer globally from 2015 to 2030, according to a study that assessed age-standardized lung cancer mortality rate among women. The mortality rate is expected to rise to 43 percent,
according to an analysis of data from 52 countries. On the other hand, the global age-standardized breast cancer mortality rate will decrease by 9 percent in the same time frame.
The author of the study is Jose M. Martínez-Sánchez, PhD, MPH, BSc, associate professor and director of the Department of Public Health, Epidemiology and Biostatistics at Universitat Internacional de Catalunya (UIC Barcelona); the study was published in the journal Cancer Research
Basis for Calculating Projected Lung and Breast Cancer Mortality Rates Lung cancer mortality rates among women
are currently rising due to smoking behaviors in the population.
‘Around the world, mortality rates of women due to lung cancer are predicted to get higher by the year 2030, while breast cancer rates will become lower.’
Calculating a projected rate might implement stricter public policy measures on smoking.
Earlier work has only focused on projections in lung and breast mortality in a single country or continent; and studies performed on a global scale have been quite a few.
Martínez-Sánchez and colleagues analyzed breast and female lung cancer mortality data from the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database from 2008 to 2014.
They only included countries with a population of over a million and that had reported data for at least four years between 2008 and 2014.
In all, they chose 52 countries: 29 from Europe; fourteen from the Americas, seven from Asia, and two from Oceania (geographical region situated in the region southeast of the Asia-Pacific region).
They calculated cancer age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) for each country based on the WHO World Standard Population for 2008 to 2014 and reported the results as per 100,000 person years; such a calculation normalizes the age in the projected rates.
A Bayesian log-linear Poisson
model was used to project the data for the years 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030.
- The mortality rate for lung cancer in women is projected to increase from 11.2 in 2015 to 16.0 in 2030 globally
- The mortality rate for breast cancer is projected to decrease from 16.1 in 2015 to 14.7 in 2030 around the world
- Europe and Oceania will have the highest lung cancer mortality rates in 2030, while America and Asia will have the lowest lung cancer mortality rates
- Oceania is predicated as the only region to see a decrease in lung cancer mortality; there will be a projected fall from 17.8 in 2015 to 17.6 in 2030
- The increased projected mortality rates in Europe and Oceania could be because it was socially acceptable for women to smoke in the European and Oceanic countries included in our study several years before this habit became common in America and Asia
- Europe is predicted to have the highest breast cancer mortality rate with a decreasing trend overall - the reason could be awareness among this population, screening programs, and treatment improvements
- On the other hand, Asia will have the lowest breast cancer mortality rate with an increasing trend overall - this could be because the Asian culture is adapting a Westernized lifestyle, thus increasing risk factors of breast cancer like obesity and increased alcohol intake
- High-income countries will have the highest projected rates for both lung and breast cancer in 2030 compared to middle-income countries
- Developed countries will be the first to witness lung cancer mortality surpass breast cancer mortality before 2030
"This research is particularly important because it provides evidence for health professionals and policymakers to decide on global strategies to reduce the social, economic, and health impacts of lung cancer among women in the future," said Martínez-Sánchez.
Based on this study, it would be a good idea to implement primary prevention methods and public policies to decrease lung cancer mortality. Reference:
- Juan Carlos Martín-Sánchez, Nuno Lunet, Adrián González-Marrón, Cristina Lidón-Moyano, Nuria Matilla-Santander, Ramon Clèries, Matteo Malvezzi, Eva Negri, Samantha Morais, Ana Rute Costa, Ana Ferro, Luisa Lopes-Conceição, Carlo LaVecchia and Jose M. Martínez-Sánchez Projections in Breast and Lung Cancer Mortality among Women: A Bayesian Analysis of 52Countries Worldwide Cancer Res August 1 2018 (78) (15) 4436-4442; DOI: 10.1158/0008-5472.CAN-18-0187