Goalkeeps Follow a Predictable Pattern When Pitted in a Penalty Shootout

There is a predictable pattern among goalkeepers when they are pitted against multiple kickers in a tense penalty shootout, which is exploitable

There is a predictable pattern among goalkeepers when they are pitted against multiple kickers in a tense penalty shootout, which is exploitable. After kickers repeatedly kick in one direction, goalkeepers become increasingly likely to dive in the opposite direction, according to an analysis of all 361 kicks from the 37 penalty shootouts that occurred in World Cup and UEFA Euro Cup matches over a 36-year period.

The findings reported in the Cell Press journal Current Biology on July 31 highlight the importance of monitoring and predicting sequential behavior in real-world competition, according to the researchers, a lesson that could be applied to many areas of life.

School Girls Mostly Continue to Play Soccer With Concussion Symptoms
Concussions are common among middle-school girls who play soccer and most of them continue to play with the symptoms.

"Cognitive fallacies can affect all of us, even if we are considered expert performers in a particular field," says Patrick Haggard of the University College London. "It is important to try to be aware of situations in which we may be vulnerable to bad decision making. Then we may be able to avoid making mistakes."

For example, Haggard and Erman Misirlisoy say, at a casino roulette table it's not a good idea to place a big bet on black simply because there have been several reds in a row. Previous events aside, red and black are always equally likely. The natural tendency to suspect otherwise is known as "gambler's fallacy."

Haggard and Misirlisoy are generally interested in how people make decisions, and they recognized soccer and other sports as great examples of competitive cognitive strategies at work.

Impact of Repetitive Heading in Soccer
Soccer is the most-popular and fastest-growing sport in the world. And like many contact sports, players are always at risk of suffering concussions from collisions on the field.

"In a penalty shootout, a goalkeeper and a group of kickers do their best to outwit each other," Misirlisoy says. "How they control their behavior gives an insight into cognitive strategies more generally. Just as a kicker and a goalkeeper need to decide between kicking left or right and diving left or right, we often find ourselves in life making decisions between two roughly balanced options, such as two alternative routes to where we want to go."

As is often the case in sports, goalkeepers can't wait until the ball has been kicked to dive or they'll miss it every time. They simply have to guess. The best strategy for both goalkeepers and kickers is to behave unpredictably, diving and kicking in random directions.