Having a blood test every few years could help predict one's chances of developing a severe liver disease like cirrhosis. Blood levels are then calculated by the Fibrosis-4 Index for Liver Fibrosis, reports a new study. The findings of the study are published in the Journal of Hepatology.
The risk of liver cirrhosis increases if the levels of this biomarker rise between two testing occasions.
Fat accumulation in the liver is common and is often seen in people with obesity or diabetes. In the worst case, fatty liver can lead to cirrhosis or liver cancer. It is unusual for this to occur but in those affected, symptoms often only occur at a late stage when there is no available treatment.
The new study shows that repeated sampling and measurements of the FIB-4 score, rather than measuring FIB-4 on one sole occasion, can increase the prediction of future liver cirrhosis. The researchers used the AMORIS cohort that contains laboratory test data in a very large population, surveyed between 1985 and 1996. More than 40,000 people had blood test data for FIB-4 from several sampling occasions. They were followed in national registers to identify those who developed cirrhosis after up to 27 years.
The main finding was that the risk increases in people where the FIB-4 score rises between two testing occasions and decreases when it falls. In this way, almost half of those who were later affected by cirrhosis could be identified. One problem, however, was that the accuracy was relatively low, with a risk of false-positive tests.
The study also established that it took a long time to develop cirrhosis and that it may be enough to recalculate the FIB-4 score at intervals of several years.
"We show that this biomarker is useful for identifying people in primary care with an increased risk of cirrhosis who may need to be more carefully investigated and to exclude people who do not need this," says Dr. Hagstrom. "But the method needs to be further developed to reduce the risk of false-positive findings, which can lead to unnecessary examinations in healthy people."