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Natasha Karim, MPH, Managing Epidemiologist at GlobalData, comments: “In a retrospective cohort study published by Nellikkal and colleagues in 2019 in Mayo Clinic Proceedings, 104 patients with a diagnosis of celiac disease and their first-degree relatives (FDR) were analyzed using data from electronic health records and data from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) CD registry between 1983 and 2017.”
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Karim continues: “Out of 360 FDRs, celiac disease was detected in 44.4%, with a significant proportion exhibiting no symptoms (28%). The current guidelines recommend that only symptomatic FDRs be tested, however, the results from this study make a case for screening all FDRs. More importantly, screening family members for CD would identify CD earlier, improving patient outcomes, and preventing long-term complications like nutritional deficiencies, other autoimmune conditions, and small bowel malignancy.”
From this study, the number of diagnosed CD cases more than doubled as a result of screening FDRs. GlobalData epidemiologists therefore predict that the current diagnosed prevalence estimates of CD will follow a similar trend in the future, should screening of FDRs become routine.
Karim adds: “The US could potentially see an increase of approximately one million newly identified CD cases, increasing the diagnosed prevalence from 0.18% to 0.46%. However, additional research and sampling are needed before any disease guidelines are changed.”
*6MM: The US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK
