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The company's latest report, 'Migraine Drug Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis and Forecast by Strategic Competitor Assessment, Market Characterization, Unmet Needs, Clinical Trial Mapping and Implications 2020 – 2030', reveals that anti-CGRP mAbs' share of the migraine market is set to rise at a 17.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to reach $5 billion in 2030. Further, the increased uptake of anti-CGRPs mAbs, and gepants — a second drug type targeting CGRP — will drive the migraine market to grow from $4.7 billion in 2020 to $12 billion in 2030 across the seven major markets (7MM**) at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.9%.
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Christie Wong, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData comments: "Control over the migraine drug market is slowly slipping into the hands of anti-CGRP mAbs. That doesn't mean there won't be some hurdles to cross, though. The annual cost of anti-CGRP mAbs is significantly higher when compared with the cost of generic oral preventives and their uptake will also be limited by their place in the treatment paradigm — typically third-line and later. Furthermore, CGRP-mAbs require a neurologist for prescription."
Key opinion leaders (KOLs) in interviewed by GlobalData emphasized that insurance companies and governing authorities require patients to fail two traditional migraine oral preventives before the use of CGRP antagonists for migraine prophylaxis can be reimbursed.
Wong explains: "The high annual cost of CGRP antagonists is expected to restrict uptake. It is likely that payers' and physicians' preference will be to prescribe cheaper orally administered alternatives whenever possible."
Although the anti-CGRP mAbs are expected to be the market-leading drug class, GlobalData notes that gepants will serve as a tough competitor.
Wong continues: "Based on insight from KOLs, primary care physicians and general practitioners will likely favor prescription of orally administered gepants over mAbs. With an expected CAGR of 31.8%, the growth of the gepant class will powerfully shape the migraine market over the next decade. In particular, AbbVie's recent launch of Qulipta (atogepant) is forecast to bring in global sales of $1.1 billion by 2030."
GlobalData's report also highlights five late-stage pipeline therapeutics for migraine. Four are acute treatments, while one is a preventive migraine treatment. All five are being developed in the US.
Wong adds: "Together, the five pipeline agents are expected to represent less than 6.6% of the migraine market in 2030, equivalent to about $790.7 million. The majority of the pipeline agents aim to improve efficacy of off-patent migraine drugs through either reformulations or use in combination products.
"KOLs interviewed by GlobalData did not think that any of the acute late-stage pipeline agents would be able outperform and replace the gold-standard oral triptans. Furthermore, KOLs noted that, despite the many available drugs for migraine, there is still room for the standard of care to improve for acute treatment."
*calcitonin gene-related peptide monoclonal antibodies
**7MM = US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, and Japan
