Positive data from the two Phase III trials in Lennox-Gastaut syndrome (LGS) patients, coupled with the previously announced positive Dravet syndrome Phase III, seem to indicate that Epidiolex (cannabidiol or CBD) works across different seizure disorders. This increases our confidence in the Phase III programs for tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) and infantile spasms (IS). A single NDA filing for both LGS and Dravet is expected mid-2017 with a launch in mid-2018.
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Our valuation is $3.43bn or $136.08 per ADS, up from $2.16bn or $98.84 per ADS previously, mainly after increasing the probability of success for LGS from 70% to 90% and for TSC from 60% to 80%, and including the infantile spasms (IS) indication, which we believe has a 60% chance of success. This was mitigated somewhat by our more conservative view of 2018 revenues due to the expected mid-year launch (its fiscal year-end is 30 September) and the capital raise in July, although we project that is the last one prior to profitability, which we expect in 2019. Also, we have removed GWP42004 for type 2 diabetes, Sativex for cerebral palsy and GWP42003 for schizophrenia from our model.
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