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Universal Health Insurance Might Not Save Lives
A previous estimate by the influential Institute of Medicine is too optimistic, said Richard Kronick, a former health care adviser to President Clinton who crunches numbers in a study appearing online in the journal Health Services Research.
In contrast to the Institute's estimate that universal coverage would save 18,000 adult lives per year, Kronick thinks the number is substantially smaller and possibly around zero.
"It's quite counterintuitive and it's not a message that most people, including myself, want to hear," said Kronick, a professor of family and preventive medicine at the University of California at San Diego. However, "the evidence we have concerning the relationship between lack of insurance and mortality is not very good, and a reasonable reading of that evidence is that the number of deaths in the United States probably wouldn't change a lot if everybody gets health insurance."
In 2002, the Institute of Medicine, which advises politicians and the public, estimated that uninsured people are 25 percent more likely to die than the insured. The Institute estimated that 18,000 adults in the United States would survive each year instead of dying if they had insurance. An updated 2006 estimate using the same approach boosted the number to 22,000.
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