Swine Virus More Directly Lethal Than Seasonal Flu: Scientist

by Sreeraman on  August 25, 2009 at 3:05 PM Research News
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Experts also caution that the pandemic flu could become more lethal as it continues to mutate.

But preliminary analysis of infection and mortality statistics from the French territory of New Caledonia and the Indian Ocean island nation of Mauritius suggest that the new A(H1N1) virus directly caused an ARDS fatality for every 10,000 cases, Flahault told AFP.

In New Caledonia, local health authorities have reported 30,000 infections and two deaths attributed directly to the pandemic virus.

Flahault said that some 70,000 persons have been infected in Mauritius, with seven reported deaths from ARDS, five of them confirmed.

"These surveillance data allow for a first estimate of direct lethality due to H1N1 of one-per-10,000 infections, about 100 times more than regular seasonal flu," he said.

Flahault cautioned that these are only "preliminary and rough estimates," and acknowledged that his findings -- based on a limited number of cases on two isolated islands -- may not extend to much larger, continental countries.

"But we have a terrible lack of data," he said.

"It may be useful to deliver such estimates ... as early as possible so health authorities can check availability of intensive care units and artificial ventilation devices in case of a wave of similar virulence this fall in the northern hemisphere," he said.

Source-AFP
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