A new statistical model has been developed in Australia to predict chances of success in a common type of vascular surgery and guide patient care.
Designed by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons, the model – called the endovascular aneurysm repair risk assessment model (ERA) – is for the surgical treatment of aneurysm, a life-threatening weakness of an artery wall.
CSIRO statistician, Mary Barnes, said only eight factors are required to predict an individual's surgical outcome.
"We put the eight variables into a simple spreadsheet that surgeons can find on our project website and use it to enter data and predict outcomes for an individual patient,” Mrs Barnes said.
“Variables like patient age and gender, aneurysm diameter and level of creatinine in the blood are examples of factors that determine how well a patient might respond to surgery.
“The ERA model processes the data and alerts the surgeon to any likely post-operative complications for that particular patient, so they can decide, for example, whether to undertake the surgery or use different treatments.
"It's essentially personalised medicine.”
The ERA model was developed initially using Australian data from 961 patients, collected from the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons’ audit of aneurysm surgery to assess the short- to mid-term consequences of the surgery – then a relatively new procedure.
The model was recently validated with data from St George’s Vascular Unit in London.