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Rate Of Climate Change Over The Next Century Could Be Higher Than Previously Anticipated
The results of the experiment at the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and at the National Center for Atmospheric Research are published in the current issue of Biogeosciences.
They illustrate the complexity of climate modeling by demonstrating how natural processes still have a strong effect on the carbon cycle and climate simulations.
In this case, scientists found that the rate of climate change over the next century could be higher than previously anticipated when the requirement of plant nutrients are included in the climate model.
According to ORNL's Peter Thornton, lead author of the research paper, the inclusion of these processes is a necessary step to improve the accuracy of climate change assessments.
"We've shown that if all of the global modeling groups were to include some kind of nutrient dynamics, the range of model predictions would shrink because of the constraining effects of the carbon nutrient limitations, even though it's a more complex model," he said.
To date, climate models ignored the nutrient requirements for new vegetation growth, assuming that all plants on earth had access to as much "plant food" as they needed.
But, by taking the natural demand for nutrients into account, the researchers have shown that the stimulation of plant growth over the coming century may be two to three times smaller than previously predicted.
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