China could see a 73-percent jump in heart disease by 2030 due to aging, smoking, high blood pressure and other risk factors, researchers who reviewed health since China's economic reforms in the 1980s said Tuesday.
"China is a prime example of a middle income nation in transition. The country's standard of living and life expectancy have improved for many, but aging, dietary changes and less physical activity are leading to more heart disease and stroke," said the study's lead author, Andrew Moran.
"Our study used a computer model to forecast future cardiovascular disease in Chinese adults, and is the first to project the individual and combined effects of major risk factor trends on a national scale," the Columbia University professor added.
Based on risk factor surveys of Chinese adults (aged 35-84) since economic reforms in the 1980s, the researchers made projections on future trends in blood pressure, cholesterol, smoking, diabetes and body weight in the Asian giant.
They found that although smoking had declined by more than 10 percent in China since the mid 1980s, 62 percent of Chinese men still smoke, while 49 percent of nonsmokers, mostly women, are exposed to passive smoke.
The study was published in an American Heart Association journal.