To better understand the possible trajectory of future CO2, Kharecha and Hansen devised five emissions scenarios spanning the years 1850 to 2100.
Each reflects a different estimate for the global production peak of fossil fuels, the timing of which depends on reserve size, recoverability and available technology.
The first scenario estimates CO2 levels if emissions from fossil fuels follow "business as usual," growing 2 percent annually until half of each reservoir has been recovered. After this, emissions begin to decline by 2 percent annually.
In the second scenario, emissions from coal are reduced, first by developed countries starting in 2013, and then by developing countries a decade later, leading to a global phaseout of emissions by 2050.
The phaseout could come either from reducing coal consumption or by capturing and trapping CO2 from coal burning before it reaches the air.
The remaining three scenarios include the phaseout of coal, but consider different scenarios for oil use and supply.
"We're illustrating the types of action needed to get to target carbon dioxide levels," Kharecha said.
"The most important mitigation strategy we recommend-a phase-out of carbon dioxide emissions from coal within the next few decades-is feasible using current or near-term technologies," he added.
Source-ANI
SPH