The tiny nation of East Timor could face a deadly AIDS epidemic, with promiscuity among youths, low condom use and general ignorance leading to a steep increase in reported cases, doctors said.
"Most likely it will be a disaster in the near future," said Dr. Daniel Murphy, founder of Bairo Pite Clinic, one of four voluntary AIDS testing centres in Dili.
East Timor is considered a low prevalence country for HIV, but government statistics point to a significant increase in the number of registered cases, rising from six in 2003 to 117 in April this year -- a 20-fold leap.
The actual number of people living with HIV in East Timor, however, could be much higher as many people don?t get tested, Murphy said.
"They think they have it under control," he said, criticising complacency in the government of Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao, a former guerrilla and hero of the struggle for independence from Indonesia.
"They should be going around the country and screening everyone. The benefit of being tested is you can get to grips with the epidemic and start therapy earlier and slow the spread down."
A 2004 study compiled by Family Health International found an HIV prevalence of three percent among female sex workers in deeply Catholic East Timor and one percent among men who have sex with men.
The study found that a lot of men who had unprotected anal sex with other men also had sex with women.