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Dynamics of Mexico's H1N1 Pandemic to be Explored by Arizona State Epidemiologist
Carlos Castillo-Chavez, director of ASU's Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, will take a close look at factors impacting the influenza dynamics within Mexico during a presentation Feb. 21 at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Castillo-Chavez's presentation, "Life in the Fast Lane: H1N1 Pandemic Dynamics in Mexico's Central Influenza Corridor," is part of a session of how mathematics is used for investigating biological hierarchies.
"Mexico public health officials took immediate and massive social-distancing measures during the initial outbreak that were effective, but only over a short-time scale," says Castillo-Chavez. "But the second wave hit Mexico and the rate of infections exceeded those over the months of April through June 2009. The combination of large movements of people in Mexico's central influenza corridor and past strict social-distancing measures seemed to have had a dramatic effect on the ongoing influenza dynamics within Mexico. Fortunately, disease severity has not been as devastating as in past pandemics."
In his analysis of Mexico's response to the H1N1 virus and the dynamics surrounding the influenza outbreak, Castillo-Chavez will address a number of lingering questions, including whether social-distancing measures (no longer in effect) combined with summer school breaks not only slowed down the first wave but could have resulted in a less manageable second wave.
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