Can Climate Change Be Predicted?

Even as the debate on climate change heats up around the world, boffins ask - is it possible to predict future climate change?

Researchers at Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen said that climate change probably occurs as a result of different chaotic influences and as a result would be difficult to predict.

New Software Assists in Better Study of Climate Change
A novel and effective computer software will enable scientists to study climate change in a thorough manner.

The most pronounced climate shifts besides the end of the ice age is a series of climate changes during the ice age where the temperature suddenly rose 10-15 degrees in less than 10 years. The climate change lasted perhaps 1000 years, then - bang - the temperature fell drastically and the climate changed again.

This sudden change is called the tipping point and researchers have not been able to simulate it in their labs.

"We have made a theoretical modelling of two different scenarios that might trigger climate change. We wanted to investigate if it could be determined whether there was an external factor which caused the climate change or whether the shift was due to an accumulation of small, chaotic fluctuations", explained Peter Ditlevsen, a climate researcher at the Niels Bohr Institute.

Recent State Surveys Confirm Americans' Support to the Government's Stance on Climate Change
Most residents of Florida, Maine and Massachusetts are of the opinion that global warming is a reality.

According to Ditlevsen, in one scenario the climate is like a seesaw that has tipped to one side. If sufficient weight is placed on the other side the seesaw will tip - the climate will change from one state to another.

In the second scenario the climate is like a ball in a trench, which represents one climate state. Turmoil in the climate system such as storms, heat waves, heavy rainfall and the melting of ice sheets may finally push the ball over into the other trench, which represents a different climate state.

Climate Change Halted by Painting Mountains White
Climate change could be halted by painting mountains, believes Eduardo Gold, an activist who is carrying out his plan to paint the peaks of the Andes white.

Currently, an increase in the atmospheric content of CO2 may be triggering a shift in the climate again.

"The Earth has not had such a high CO2 content in the atmosphere since more than 15 million years ago, when the climate was very warm and alligators lived in England," he said.

Even Early Hunters Caused Some Climate Change
If you believe human activities in the last century or so are responsible for climate change, you may have to think again.

"This could mean that the climate might not just slowly gets warmer over the next 1000 years, but that major climate changes theoretically could happen within a few decades", Ditlevsen added, but stressed that his research only deals with investigating the climate of the past and not predictions of the future climate.

The results have just been published in Geophysical Research Letters.

Source-ANI