Nearly 650 million Indians will have health insurance cover by 2020, while private insurance coverage will grow by nearly 15 per cent annually till 2020, said Azaz Motiwala, founder and principal consultant of Ikon Marketing Consultant (IMC).
In a new study, IMC reported that India will emerge as a leading global player in the pharmaceutical industry by 2020, securing a place among the top five major global markets.
Describing the ongoing decade as a healthy one for the pharma industry, Azaz Motiwala, said the major driving factors in this decade are huge domestic demand and increased spending on drugs.
"The global pharma market is expected to grow at 7 per cent to 8 per cent over the next five years, reaching an anticipated US $1.7 trillion in 2020," Motiwala said, adding that India is going to rank among top ten global players by 2015 itself.
According to him, the Indian consumer currently spends nearly one per cent of his total income on drugs and pharmaceuticals, which will not alter significantly in the current decade.
"However, with the rise in the per capita income, the spending is going to be triple (approximately US $33) by 2020," Motiwala said.
"The government's long-term vision of making quality health care affordable must see at least 50 per cent of country's population covered by health insurance by 2020, against the current coverage of only 15 per cent and the research indicates that the coverage should increase to 80 per cent within next ten years," he added.
"By 2020, the Indian health care industry is estimated to be worth US $275.6 billion and currently 8 per cent of India's GDP is spent on health care, but the country needs to spend at least US $80 billion more in the next five years to meet the targets," the research stated.
According to the study, in the current decade, the spread of diabetes will drive the growth of new therapies in India's pharmaceutical market and by 2020, the disease will assume greater proportions by rising six times. Diabetes presently affects around 50 million Indians, killing about 4 million annually and as per official statistics.
"Treatment for chronic diseases like asthma, cancer, diabetes, heart ailments, osteoporosis and kidney ailments will likely to constitute more than half of India's pharma market by the end of the decade," Motiwala said.
Five new areas, including patented products, consumer healthcare, biologics, vaccines and public health, will capture 45 per cent of the market by the end of the decade to grow to a US$14-18 billion industry by 2020.
Emerging sectors, such as bio pharmaceuticals, bio generics, bio similar and pharma packaging, are going to contribute significantly, the study says.
According to the study, metros and tier-1 markets, which have been growing at 14-15 per cent in the last five years, will drive growth in the industry. They account for 60 per cent of the Indian pharmaceutical market today and look set to continue growing to a market size at US#33 billion by the end of the decade, Motiwala said.
Rural markets, on the other hand, will constitute 25 per cent by 2020 up from 20 per cent currently.