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Home » Environmental Health

3.5 Billion People Face Risk of Dengue by 2080, Warns UN Panel on Climate Change

December 13, 2007 at 12:40 PM Environmental Health

In an alarming projection, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned that a population of 1.5 billion to 3.5 billion people could face the risk of being afflicted by dengue by 2080 as a result of global warming. Besides, worldwide it is estimated that an additional 220 to 400 million people could be exposed to malaria.

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The United Nations Human Development Report 2007-08, released in November and based on the IPCC projection, points out that dengue fever is already in evidence at higher elevations in previously dengue-free areas of Latin America. Likewise, in Indonesia warmer temperatures have led to the mutation of the dengue virus, leading to an increase in fatalities in the rainy season. �While there is no proven evidence that climate change is implicated, in the late 1990s El Nino an La Nina events in the country were associated with severe outbreaks of both dengue and malaria, with malaria spreading to high elevations in the highlands of Irian Jaya,� the report said.

In the Asian context, the report pointed out that during 2005, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan faced temperatures 5 to 6 degree Celsius above the regional average. As a result of this, 400 deaths were reported in India alone.

The report also warns: �Summer heat-related mortality could increase 55 per cent by the 2020s, more than double by the 2050s and more than triple by the 2080s. Climate change could also contribute indirectly to at least three cases of wider health problems � incidence of vector-borne diseases such as West Nile Virus, Lyme disease and malaria may rise; water-borne disease organisms may become more prevalent; and photochemical air pollution may increase.�

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3.5 Billion People Face Risk of Dengue by 2080, Warns UN Panel on Climate Change

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