Population Projection In India - 2011

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Population projection is a forecasting tool that helps to estimate the changes in population size and demographic structure.

Need: It is mandatory for the Government policymakers and planners of the country, in order to determine the future demand for basic human needs such as food, water, education, energy, and services, and to forecast future demographic characteristics.

Main Objective: The main objective is to provide or undertake activities aimed at achieving population stabilization, sustainable economic growth, social development and environment protection, by 2045.

NCP Role: The projections for the country, individual States and Union Territories up to the year 2026 made by the Technical Group constituted by the National Commission on Population (NCP) under the Chairmanship of Registrar General, India, reveals that the country’s population would reach 1.4 billion by 2026.

Two Methodologies:
  1. Component Method
  2. Mathematical Method

Component Method-
The components used to get the population projection are as follows,
  1. A base population
  2. Separate assumptions of birth, death, and migration during the period covered by the projection,
  3. A tool
Mathematical Method-
This method is simply based on past growth performance, and is less reliable.

Projected Population of India (In Millions)

The projected population and proportion (percent) of population by broad age-group as on 1st March, 2001-2026 as per “Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections – Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (May 2006)” are given in the Table below:

Age-wise Projected Population

Projected values of expectation of life at birth, Total Fertility Rate and corresponding population projections for different periods:
Projected and Actual/Provisional Population of India, 1971 - 2011 (in '000)
Projected and Actual/Provisional Population totals: 1971 - 2011
Projected and Provisional Population of States as on 1st March, 2011 with percent difference within (+/-) 2 percent (in '000)
Difference in Population and Child Population in the age group 0-6 years between projected and census in selected major states: 2011 (in '000)
Interpretation: India’s population will continue to grow at a rapid rate.
Source: Family Welfare Statistics in India - 2011 & CensusIndia.gov

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