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Reportlinker Adds Big Pharma Performance Before, During and Beyond the Global Recession

Wednesday, December 16, 2009 Press Release J E 4
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NEW YORK, Dec. 15 Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:

Big Pharma Performance Before, During and Beyond the Global Recession

http://www.reportlinker.com/p0168549/Big-Pharma-Performance-Before-During-and-Beyond-the-Global-Recession.html

Introduction

This report assesses the performance of the leading 15 pharmaceutical companies up to, during and beyond the recent global recession. It places the pharma sector in the context of other major industry sectors and analyzes the internal dynamics behind pharmaceutical companies' performance.

Scope

*Cross-sector sales analysis before, during and beyond the global recession

*Assessment of high- and low-growth sectors of the prescription pharmaceuticals market

*Discussion of pharma's possible responses to slowing pharma sales growth rates

*Ranking of the top 15 pharma companies over 2005 to 2014

Highlights

The pharma landscape is being reshaped by expiries. This trend has already begun with expiries wiping -3.7 percentage points off the sector's 200508 sales growth rate, turning pharma into one of the slower-growing industry sectors.

The recession has provided some respite for pharma, giving it a stock market boost as it lived up to its defensive reputation and stood as the only sector to achieve positive sales growth. Nevertheless, this only masked the continual expiry-driven decline of pharma sales growth rates.

Between 2009 and 2014, the expiry burden will reach a tipping point, sending year-on-year pharma sales growth rates negative in 2012 and 2013. If pharma is to avoid a continuation of the 200508 stock market revaluation of its worth, it must take action.

Reasons to Purchase

*Assess pharma's sales and stock market performance in relation to other major industry sectors

*Evaluate the strategic shifts within the prescription pharmaceutical market and identify the high- and low-growth sectors of the industry

*Quantify the historical and forecast impact of generics on pharma's sales growth rate

ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE 2

About the PharmaVitae team 2

Chapter 1 Introduction 3

Structure: past, present and future analysis 3

Cross-sector analysis 4

Pharma analysis 6

Data sources 7

Ex-pharma data 7

Pharma data 7

PharmaVitae Explorer database 7

Re-creating analysis from this report using PharmaVitae Explorer queries 7

Further reading 8

Methodology 8

Chapter 2 Executive summary 9

Key findings 9

Insulated from the wider economy, pharma recorded the highest growth of any sector during the recession, but this masked the continuing decline of sales growth rates as expiries take their toll 10

Expiries will shape pharma's corporate landscape... 13

...as the division between high- and low-growth molecule type/therapy area sectors widens 15

Pharma must reposition, diversify and cut costs to maintain stock market performance... 17

Reposition: licensing, restructuring and acquisitions improve biologics, vaccines and rest of world presence 18

Diversify: acquisitions build presence in other sectors 20

Cut costs: restructuring and using acquisitions to achieve economies of scale 22

...or ready itself to a return to the historic trend of market underperformance 23

Company rankings, 2005-08, Q208-Q209, 2009-14 and post-M&A 2009-14 25

TABLE OF CONTENTS 27

TABLE OF FIGURES 27

Chapter 3 Pharma Past - Pre-Recession Analysis, 2005-08 28

Key findings 28

Cross-sector analysis 29

Pharma's growth rate has fallen from double-digit figures to below the cross-sector average 29

Leading up to the recession, pharma has underperformed the S&P 500 30

Expiries have already begun to take their toll on pharma 31

In an expiry-less world, pharma's 2005-08 sales CAGR would have stood at 10.2% 32

Pharma analysis 33

The uneven burden of expiries determines company-by-company performances 33

Combining molecule type with therapy area identifies high- and slowing-growth areas of the industry... 34

...and goes some way to explaining different company performances 35

Exchange rates have helped dollar-reporting pharma companies' performance 37

Acquisitions have driven some companies' sales growth 38

Adjusting for exchange rate fluctuations and M&A alters the pharma landscape 39

Company rankings 40

Chapter 4 Pharma Present - Recession Analysis, Q208-Q209 41

Key findings 41

Cross-sector analysis 42

Pharma was the only sector to record positive sales growth during the worst of the recession 42

Correspondingly, it has outperformed the wider stock market... 43

However, within pharma's bubble, the narrative of expiries eroding year-on-year sales growth rates continues 44

...in an expiry-less world, its performance relative to other sectors would have been even more impressive 45

Pharma analysis 46

Expiries have continued to shape company performances 46

A significant strengthening of the dollar has benefitted euro- and sterling-reporting companies... 47

There has been relatively little completed M&A activity 48

Company rankings 49

Chapter 5 Pharma Future - Post-Recession Analysis, 2009-14 50

Key findings 50

Pharma analysis 51

The patent cliff will drag year-on-year growth into negative territory during 2012 and 2013, before recovering to positive, if marginal, growth in 2014 51

Dragged down by expiries, six companies are forecast negative 2009-14 growth 53

The benefits of being in a 'high-growth' sector are significant 54

Company rankings 56

Pharma must resort to rest of world expansion, diversification, cost-cutting and M&A to bolster its performance 58

Move out of low-growth commoditized markets and into high-growth biologics and vaccines 59

With traditional markets slowing, rest of world expansion looks attractive 60

Contributions from ex-Pharma business units can come at a cost 61

Cost-cutting will make a significant contribution to operating profit growth 62

Mergers can contribute sales growth, cost-cutting opportunities and diversification 63

Except in the event of a double-dip recession, pharma is expected to return to underperforming the market 64

Chapter 6 Appendix 65

Cross-sector data 65

Supporting data 66

Methodology 69

Expiry-less growth rates 69

M&A adjustment 69

Exchange rate adjustment 70

Molecule type by therapy area market segmentation 70

References 71

News articles 71

Data sources 71

Abbreviations 71

Exchange rates 72

About Datamonitor 73

About Datamonitor Healthcare 73

Datamonitor consulting 73

Disclaimer 75

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Cross-sector coverage 4

Table 2: Pharma sector coverage 6

Table 3: Pharma sales by lifecycle stage ($bn), 2009-14 11

Table 4: Pharma company sales growth ($m) by lifecycle stage, 2009-14 14

Table 5: Pharma company rankings, prescription pharmaceutical sales ($m), 2005-08 40

Table 6: Pharma company rankings, prescription pharmaceutical sales ($m), Q208-Q209 49

Table 7: Blockbuster product* patent expiries, 2009-14 52

Table 8: Pharma company rankings, prescription pharmaceutical sales ($m), 2009-14 56

Table 9: Post-M&A pharma company rankings, prescription pharmaceutical sales ($m), 2009-14 57

Table 10: Sector sales ($bn), 2005-08 65

Table 11: Sector sales ($bn), Q208-Q209 65

Table 12: Lipitor sales forecast ($m), unadjusted and expiry-less, 2008-09 69

Table 13: Bayer sales ($m), with and without M&A, 2005-08 69

Table 14: Sales growth ($bn) by molecule type vs. therapy area segment, 2002-05 70

Table 15: Sales growth ($bn) by molecule type vs. therapy area segment, 2005-08 70

Table 16: Sales growth ($bn) by molecule type vs. therapy area segment, 2009-14 70

Table 17: Exchange rates, 2009 72

List of Figures

Figure 1: Seasonally-adjusted US GDP growth rate, at annual rates (%), Q105-Q309 3

Figure 2: The PharmaVitae Explorer 7

Figure 3: Pharma market capitalization vs. S&P 500 (rebased), July 2005 to September 2009 10

Figure 4: Pharma sales growth rate (unadjusted and expiry-less) vs. the cross-sector average (%), 2005-14 11

Figure 5: Pharma sales growth by lifecycle stage ($bn), 2009-14 12

Figure 6: Company sales growth by lifecycle stage, percentage of 2009 sales (%), 2009-14 13

Figure 7: Molecule type vs. therapy area sector growth map, 2009-14 15

Figure 8: Strategic focus and growth rate by company, 2009-14 16

Figure 9: Strategic responses to falling sales and operating profit growth 17

Figure 10: Effects of acquisitions on Pfizer, Merck & Co. and Abbott's strategic focus and growth rate by company, 2009-14 18

Figure 11: Abbott-Solvay growth by geography (% of 2009 combined sales), 2009-14 19

Figure 12: Company growth rates, CAGR (%), prescription pharmaceuticals vs. other business units, 2009-14 20

Figure 13: Pfizer-Wyeth growth by business unit (% of 2009 combined sales), 2009-14 21

Figure 14: Operating profit growth ($bn), sales vs. operating margin, 2009-14 22

Figure 15: Pharma market capitalization vs. S&P 500 (rebased), July 2009 to September 2009 23

Figure 16: Company rankings by prescription pharmaceutical sales, 2005-08, Q208-Q209, 2009-14 and post-M&A 2009-14 25

Figure 17: Sector-by-sector sales growth rate, CAGR (%), 2005-08 29

Figure 18: Market capitalization growth rate (%), pharma vs. S&P 500, 2005-08 30

Figure 19: Pharma sales growth rate (%), reported and expiry-less, 2005-08 31

Figure 20: Sector-by-sector sales growth rate, CAGR (%), pharma unadjusted and expiry-less, 2005-08 32

Figure 21: Company sales performance by lifecycle stage, percent of 2005 annual sales (%),2005-08 33

Figure 22: Molecule type vs. therapy area sector growth map, 2005-08 34

Figure 23: Companies on the molecule type vs. therapy area sector growth map, 2005-08 35

Figure 24: Company sales growth rate, CAGR (%), 2005-08 36

Figure 25: USD vs. EUR, GBP, CHF and JPY (rebased), 2005 to H1 2008 37

Figure 26: Company growth rates, CAGR (%), adjusted for exchange rates and M&A, 2005-08 38

Figure 27: Strategic focus and growth rate (XR- and M&A-adjusted) by company, 2005-08 39

Figure 28: Sector sales growth (%), Q208-Q209 42

Figure 29: Pharma market capitalization vs. S&P 500 (rebased), Q208-Q209 43

Figure 30: Pharma sales growth rate (%), reported and expiry-less, 2005-Q209 44

Figure 31: Sector sales growth (%), pharma unadjusted and expiry-less, Q208-Q209 45

Figure 32: Company growth by lifecycle stage, percentage of 2008 sales (%), 2008-09 46

Figure 33: USD vs. EUR, GBP, CHF and JPY (rebased), Q208-Q209 47

Figure 34: Company sales growth, CAGR (%), exchange rate- and M&A-adjusted, Q208-Q209 48

Figure 35: Pharma sales growth rate (%), reported and expiry-less, 2009-14 51

Figure 36: Company growth by lifecycle stage, percentage of 2009 sales (%), 2009-14 53

Figure 37: Molecule type vs. therapy area sector growth map, 2009-14 54

Figure 38: Strategic focus and growth rate by company, 2009-14 55

Figure 39: Company growth rates, CAGR (%), 2009-14 58

Figure 40: Effects of acquisitions on Pfizer, Merck & Co. and Abbott's strategic focus and growth rate by company, 2009-14 59

Figure 41: Seven major market (7MM) sales vs. rest of world (RoW) ($m), 2005-14 60

Figure 42: Company growth rates, CAGR (%), prescription pharmaceuticals vs. other business units, 2009-14 61

Figure 43: Operating profit growth ($bn), sales vs. operating margin, 2009-14 62

Figure 44: Merger growth rates, CAGR (%), PFE-WYE, MRK-SGP and ABT-SOLV, 2009-14 63

Figure 45: Pharma market capitalization vs. S&P 500 (rebased), July 2009 to September 2009 64

Figure 46: Chicago Board Options Exchange's volatility index, 2005-09 66

Figure 47: Trade-weighted dollar index, 2002-09 67

Figure 48: Crude oil price*, dollars per barrel, 2001-09 68

To order this report:

Pharmaceutical Industry: Big Pharma Performance Before, During and Beyond the Global Recession

More Market Research Report

Nicolas Bombourg Reportlinker Email: nbo@reportlinker.com US: (805)652-2626 Intl: +1 805-652-2626

SOURCE Reportlinker
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