LONDON, May 3, 2010 The rheumatoid arthritis treatmentHumira will replace Lipitor as the world's biggest-selling drug in 2016, buta familiar name, Pfizer, will still be the biggest seller of medicines afterthe patent cliff according to the World Preview 2016 report published todayby EvaluatePharma, the premier provider of pharma and biotech analysis.
The cancer treatment Avastin had been widely expected to emerge as thebiggest blockbuster drug following patent expiry next year for Lipitor, acholesterol-lowering drug. However, Avastin has experienced some clinicalsetbacks this year and as a result Humira is now forecast to be the top drugwith sales of $10.1bn in 2016, according to the EvaluatePharma report.
Meanwhile, Pfizer, through a strategy of mergers and acquisitionsincluding last year's $68bn mega-merger with Wyeth, will cling to the topspot in prescription sales, although Merck & Co, thanks to its $41bn mergerwith Schering-Plough last year, will be close behind.
A surprise in the top pharma sales list is the entrance of Teva, theIsraeli generics company which will become an increasingly large pharmaplayer as the industry's patent cliff looms. Over the next seven years Tevawill push into the top ten ahead of some more traditional big pharma groupslike Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly and Amgen.
In terms of therapy areas biotech products targeting cancer and rheumaticdisorders look set to dominate the scene, accounting for six of the top 10 in2016. Only Glaxo's respiratory medicine Advair, which is proving incrediblyresilient to generic challengers, and AstraZeneca's cholesterol fighterCrestor, will be carrying the flame for conventional, small molecules drugsin 2016.
Commenting on the launch of the report, Jonathan de Pass, EvaluatePharmaCEO, said: "The next seven years will see huge growth in sales of complexbiologics, driven in part by the premium price they can command and theindustry's productivity in getting these compounds to market. We will alsosee generics players such as Teva achieving impressive growth due to acontinued sales erosion of blockbuster products coming off patent."
"Our World Preview report gives a snapshot of the industry in 2016. Thisis the first time this data has been available and will provide a valuableinsight into the new competitive pharma landscape beyond the patent cliff."
EvaluatePharma launched the report today at BIO 2010 in Chicago,Illinois, United States.
More information on EvaluatePharma's World Preview 2016, which assessforecasted trends in prescription drug sales, R&D spend, therapy area growthand the performance of marketed and pipeline products, can be found atEvaluatePharma's stand at BIO 2010 (2436) or via EvaluatePharma's websitehttp://www.evaluatepharma.com
Notes to editors
About EvaluatePharma (R) - http://www.evaluatepharma.com
Set up in 1996 by former top pharma analyst Dr. Jonathan de Pass,EvaluatePharma(R) is the premier source for pharma and biotech analysis.
EvaluatePharma was the first company to supply reliable consensusforecasts of global drug sales and now provides standardised worldwidefinancial and forecast models with consensus product forecasts to 2016, dataon R&D pipelines, licensing deals, patent risk and M&A deals, along withanalytical tools that include, Merge Company and Peer Group Analyzer and over3000 global product NPVs (Net Present Value) linked to share price.
In 2007 EvaluatePharma(R)Alpha launched offering a valuation servicedesigned to quantify market events and the impact on product, portfolio andcompany valuation - NPV Analyzer, Calendar of Events and the daily newsservice EP Vantage.
Last year, Evaluate Ltd, the parent company of EvaluatePharma, wasawarded the Queen's Award for Enterprise: International Trade.WW Prescription (Rx) WW Annual Market Market Pharmaceutical Sales Sales ($bn) Share Rank Rank 2009 2016 Annual 2009 2016 2009 2016 Growth (09 - 16) 1 Pfizer * 55.3 47.1 -2% 8.6% 6.0% 1 1 2 Merck & Co * 41.6 46.3 +2% 6.5% 5.9% 2 2 3 Novartis 37.3 46.0 +3% 5.8% 5.9% 4 3 4 Roche 36.0 43.9 +3% 5.6% 5.6% 6 4 5 Sanofi-Aventis 38.3 38.9 +0% 6.0% 5.0% 3 5 6 GlaxoSmithKline 36.3 38.7 +1% 5.6% 4.9% 5 6 7 Abbott Laboratories 16.5 26.1 +7% 2.6% 3.3% 10 7 8 Johnson & Johnson 21.3 24.8 +2% 3.3% 3.2% 8 8 9 AstraZeneca 31.6 22.1 -5% 4.9% 2.8% 7 9 10 Teva Pharmaceutical 12.6 20.8 +7% 2.0% 2.7% 15 10 Industries * Proforma data in 2009 (Pfizer+Wyeth / Merck+Schering-Plough)
SOURCE EvaluatePharma Ltd