The myelofibrosis market is expected to almost double in value from $545.2 million in 2015 to $1.02 billion by 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate of 6.4%, according to research and consulting firm GlobalData.
The company’s latest report states that the strength of this growth, which covers the seven major markets (7MM) of the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, and Japan, will primarily be driven by the launch of pipeline agents, including Gilead’s momelotinib, Promedior’s PRM-151, and Johnson & Johnson/Geron’s imetelstat. Other factors include an increase in the incidence of myelofibrosis, and a rise in the use of drugs for the treatment of splenomegaly and constitutional symptoms.
James Beggs, Ph.D., GlobalData’s Analyst covering Oncology and Hematology, explains: “Incyte/Novartis’ Jakafi is currently the only drug approved for the treatment of myelofibrosis-associated splenomegaly and constitutional symptoms in the 7MM. Currently, there are no drugs approved for patients who are refractory or become unresponsive to Jakafi treatment, and momelotinib and imetelstat are expected to contribute towards addressing this issue with launches in the second-line setting in 2017 and 2021, respectively.”
Despite this rising competition from pipeline agents, Jakafi is expected to retain its leading spot in the market, with just over 50% of the market share in 2025. GlobalData expects that momelotinib can ultimately only capture about 25% of Jakafi’s patient share in the first-line setting, as Jakafi has the first-to-market advantage, and long-term efficacy and safety data are available.
Beggs continues: “Imetelstat, a first-in-class telomerase inhibitor, is expected to struggle for market penetration due to late market entry and the high level of toxicity shown in previous clinical trials. GlobalData estimates sales of the drug in 2025 to be only $21.2 million, representing just 2% of the myelofibrosis market in the 7MM.
“PRM-151, however, looks more promising in terms of expected sales. If the drug manages to demonstrate anti-fibrotic effects in myelofibrosis patients in a pivotal trial, it may reduce patients’ dependency on treatments for anemia, splenomegaly, and constitutional symptoms, thereby fulfilling unmet needs. In effect, it will potentially limit the growth of other drug classes in the myelofibrosis landscape.”