Increases in Ebola and Zika Gene Replikin Counts for 2012 and 2013 Gave 1-3 Year Warning Before their Respective Outbreaks in 2014 and 2015
BOSTON, May 2, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Replikins, Ltd. today announced the provision of a new information service, Replikins Surveillance™, that can provide advance warning of a coming pandemic outbreak, giving public health, pharmaceutical, and government authorities the ability to hasten specific prevention efforts. The service is available to institutions and individuals.
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Replikin gene structures are part of the chemistry of rapid replication (1-5). The molecular evolution of 'killer' Replikins can now be tracked real-time by Replikins Surveillance™ (5).
Previously there were no quantitative warnings of coming outbreaks. Pre-outbreak warnings (predictions) of coming outbreaks, one to three years in advance, now are obtained from Replikins gene data of specific organisms like those listed below. 'BigData' gene analysis by proprietary software, of the Replikin Counts (number per 100 amino acids) now ALSO routinely provide the strain of the organism, its new mutations, its infectivity and lethality, its history of conservation, its preferred hosts, its first preferred geographic site, its potential for spread, and its course - all data useful for the pursuit of pandemic prevention efforts by public health, vaccine and therapeutic methods.
In 42 outbreaks by 16 viruses increased Replikin Counts at p<0.001 have been found always to precede outbreaks (1-5). Replikins, Ltd. is unaware of any other technology which gives this information.
The attached Figure shows an example of a pre-outbreak warning, by Replikin Count increase in the gene for Ebola Glycoprotein, in 2013, one year in advance of the 2014 clinical outbreak of Ebola; and the sudden otherwise unexpected sharp drop in Count in 2014, before the equally unexpected sharp drop in Ebola cases in 2015. Two separate independent analyses of the Ebola Polymerase and Ebola VP35 proteins Replikin Counts gave confirmatory results, but one year earlier, in 2012; thus not one year but two years in advance; and the same drop in Count preceded the sharp drop in Ebola cases (5).
The data for the outbreak of Zika in 2015 (5), are also shown in the Figures attached. The number of Zika specimens on PubMed was small and individual Replikin Counts of the specimens are shown in the Zika Figure. Increases in the Count occurred three years and one year before the outbreak. To date, there is not yet a sudden drop in the Count in Zika. The prediction and course of the Replikin Counts in Zika, starting with the highest ever recorded in Zika history, so far in 2016 resemble that which led to the chronic course of the H1N1 Pandemic of 2009 (2).
Examples of Successful Replikins Surveillance™ Predictions in Organisms Analyzed to date (1-5):
Zika Japanese Encephalitis Dengue Chikungunya Lassa Ebola Influenza H1N1, H2N2, H3N2, H5N1, H7N9 SARS Mers-CoV Hand Foot and Mouth Disease Foot and Mouth Disease Taura Syndrome Shrimp Infectious Salmon Anemia Virus Colony Disorder of Bees
Gonococcus E. Coli Tuberculosis Staphylococcus Streptococcus C. Difficile
Protozoa – malaria (p. falciparum) Cancer cells – glioblastoma multiforme brain; lung, pancreas, breast
Compared to the very high costs of only being able to react to an outbreak after it has occurred, as illustrated in the recent Ebola and Zika outbreaks, pre-outbreak efforts are now possible and will be much less costly in money terms. Because of the extra time afforded and the intervention earlier-in-spread, pre-outbreak efforts are expected also to result in less loss of life, suffering, and chaos.
It is recommended that, especially for those organisms which have shown resistance to current treatments, and the ability and proclivity to pass from animals to humans, and have shown high infectivity/lethality rates, that Replikins Surveillance™, permitting earlier testing and more effective response, should be initiated now, routinely, pre-outbreak.
Contact: Samuel Bogoch, MD, PhD, Email, tel 646-320-5910
1. Bogoch,S and Bogoch, E.S. Replikins: the Chemistry of Rapid Replication. Begell Press, N.Y. 2005. 2. Bogoch,S and Bogoch, E.S. Genome Replikin Count Predicts Increased Infectivity/Lethality of Viruses. Nature Precedings. doi:10.1038/npre.2012.7144.1 3. Bogoch,S. and Bogoch E.S. Marked Increase in Ebola Gene Replikin Count in 2012 & 2013 Predicted Current Ebola Outbreak; Does Recent Sharp Drop in Replikin Count Signal Early End for the Current Ebola Outbreak?.Reuters. October 4, 2014. 4. Jackwood,M.W., Bogoch, S., Bogoch ES, Hilt, D.,and Williams,S.M. Efficacy of a Replikin Peptide Vaccine against Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza H5 Virus . Avian Diseases 53(4): 613?617, 2009 5. Bogoch S. and Bogoch,ES. Molecular Evolution of Killer Replikins. 2016. In preparation
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SOURCE Replikins, Ltd.