Advertisement
The current H1N1 appears to be rapidly replicating simultaneously in theU.S. and Austria. It may succeed H5N1 as the leading candidate for the nextexpected overdue pandemic. However, the same virus replikin structuresdetected by FluForecast(R) software in all three previous pandemics, namely1918 H1N1, 1957 H2N2, and 1968 H3N2, as well as in H5N1, have not yet beendetected in the currently evolving H1N1.
Advertisement
There is evidence that many factors, including virus structure, hostreceptivity, and the environment, together with infectivity and rapidreplication, need to converge for a pandemic to occur. For H5N1, the highhuman mortality rate, which peaked at over 80% in 2006-07 in Indonesia, aswell as current low infectivity, both appear to limit H5N1's ability toproduce a pandemic. Furthermore, the H5N1 rapid replication cycle which beganin 1996 now appears to be over. The H5N1 virus produced less than 300 WorldHealth Organization confirmed deaths over the past 10 years.
On the other hand, H1N1, with an estimated human mortality rate of only2.5 to 10%, but with much higher infectivity, produced an estimated 50 milliondeaths in the 1918 pandemic. A number of countermeasures exist today which didnot exist in 1918, however. Among these is Replikins' ability to manufacturesynthetic vaccines based on current sequences, with a 7-day productionturnaround.
This release was issued through eReleases(TM). For more information,visit http://www.ereleases.com.Contact: Replikins Ltd., 38 The Fenway, Boston MA 02215 email: [email protected] Tel: 646-320-5910 http://www.Replikins.com
SOURCE Replikins Ltd.
