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The new Pharmacor report entitled Alzheimer's Disease finds that sales ofAlzheimer's disease drugs will increase from $3 billion in 2007 to nearly $9billion in 2017 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UnitedKingdom and Japan. Because of their anticipated superior efficacy oversmall-molecule therapies, the two new biologic agents driving most of thisgrowth will be bapineuzumab and LY-2062430. Although bapineuzumab andLY-2062430 may present greater safety risks than other emerging agents, thetwo drugs are estimated to collectively garner 71 percent of the Alzheimer'sdisease drug market in 2017, according to the report.
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"We expect the monoclonal antibodies bapineuzumab and LY-2062430 tocollectively garner $6 billion in sales by 2017," said Nitasha Manchanda,Ph.D., analyst at Decision Resources. "The emerging small-molecule agentsFlurizan and Dimebon will also contribute to market growth, although to alesser extent, accounting for $900 million in combined sales in 2017. However,if the monoclonal antibodies cannot establish superior efficacy oversmall-molecule agents in pivotal trials, Flurizan and Dimebon will havegreater uptake."
The report also finds that sales of acetylcholinesterase inhibitors, theagents that currently dominate the Alzheimer's disease market, will drop bynearly half between 2007 and 2017. In 2007, acetylcholinesterase inhibitorsaccounted for 70 percent of market share; in 2017, they will represent only 13percent, due to generic erosion, competition from emerging agents and adramatic increase in the overall size of the market.
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SOURCE Decision Resources
