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"Both Evista and Forteo are patent-protected through the end of theforecast; thus they will provide a strong foundation for Eli Lilly's growth,especially considering Evista's new breast cancer prevention indication andincreasing physician comfort with Forteo," said Matthew Runnalls, analyst atMillennium Research Group. "The growth driver in the latter years of theforecast, however, will be the company's second-generation SERM, arzoxifene.However, arzoxifene will come to market after Wyeth's second-generation SERMViviant, and its novel hormone replacement therapy/SERM combination, Aprela,which will complicate arzoxifene's launch."
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The report also finds that, despite retaining the continental Europeanpatent for Fosamax, Merck's market-leading position in bisphosphonates -- itgenerated more than $2 billion in osteoporosis revenues in 2006 -- will bedecimated by generic versions of the drug in the United States, Japan, and theUnited Kingdom. Merck will see its market share drop from 37.7 percent in 2006to 9.1 percent in 2011. Lilly and a number of other companies are poised tofill the gap in this newly competitive market. Wyeth, Amgen, and Novartis willeach more than double its market share by 2011. More than 20% of physicianssurveyed for this report predict that Wyeth will be the most influentialosteoporosis company over the next five years, thanks to the launch of Viviantand Aprela. Gynecologists, in particular, give the company high marks on itssalesforce and physician and patient education. Novartis and Amgen will alsogain significant share owing to a once-yearly injectable bisphosphonate(Novartis's Reclast/Aclasta) and a twice-yearly first-in-class biologic(Amgen's denosumab).
About Brands & Strategies
Brands & Strategies is the first and only report series to bring togetherall of the competitive information elements biopharmaceutical companies needto make informed decisions about their products and the best next-steps. Eachreport includes the following:
About Millennium Research Group
Millennium Research Group (www.MRG.net), part of the Decision Resources,Inc., family, is a leading provider of strategic information to the healthcaresector. Focused on the medical device, pharmaceutical, and biotechnologyindustries, the company provides clients its specialized industry expertisethrough published reports and customized consulting services.
About Decision Resources
Decision Resources, Inc., (www.DecisionResources.com) is a world leader inhealthcare market research publications, advisory services, and consultingdesigned to help clients shape strategy, allocate resources, and master theirchosen markets.
All company, brand, or product names contained in this document may betrademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders.- Physician perceptions of companies and brand attributes - Physician preference for sources of information - Physician opinion of future strategies, messaging, and upcoming events - Overvi
