Immunovia is ready to validate its test for the early diagnosis of pancreatic cancer from its IMMray platform. Pancreatic cancer is rare and difficult to treat, with a five-year survival rate of c 5%; early diagnosis could improve this to c 50%. This would make an accurate diagnostic test cost-effective in higher-risk patient groups. A prospective trial will start in Q416, with first out-of-pocket sales in 2018 before reimbursement is achieved. Screening of patients newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes provides additional upside. We value Immunovia at SEK2.6bn or SEK155.2/share.
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We believe there is upside to SEK155.2 per share (SEK149.6 diluted), assuming a penetration rate of 35% in high-risk patients and 5% in T2D patients, which results in targeting total peak sales of c SEK2.1bn for both groups. During September-October 2016, Immunovia raised c SEK218.6m at a price of SEK87 per share to fund a clinical trial in the T2D group. Continued business execution and expansion to further indications should unlock further value.
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SOURCE Edison Investment Research
